Annual Maximum Precipitation in Indonesia and Its Association to Climate Teleconnection Patterns: An Extreme Value Analysis

Extreme rainfall (ER) in Indonesia frequently leads to floods and landslides, disrupting economic activity impacting human lives. Here, we investigate ER variability association with climate teleconnection patterns (CTP) including the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Madden-Julian (MJO), using extreme value analysis based on daily data from 32 stations for 30 years (1985-2014). By fitting a generalized distribution, significant between annual maximum (AMR) CTP was found 12 of stations. The sensitivity test location parameter showed that AMR-CTP interconnection spatially inhomogeneous. positive (negative) ENSO IOD AMR noticeable south-western (eastern) Indonesia. Additionally, MJO detected at 4 (3) mostly located Sumatra (Java) Island. Furthermore, return level shows 20-year intensity waiting time will be shorter longer when indexes strengthen weaken, suggesting potential increase decrease likelihood future occurrences, respectively. These results are relevant understanding relationship should considered adaptation mitigation plans minimize impacts.